New Home Sales at 476,000 SAAR in May

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 476 thousand. This was up from 466 thousand SAAR in April (April sales were revised up from 454 thousand).

February sales were revised up from 429 thousand to 445 thousand, and March sales were revised up from 444 thousand to 451 thousand. Very strong upward revisions.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

"Sales of new single-family houses in May 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.1 percent above the revised April rate of 466,000 and is 29.0 percent above the May 2012 estimate of 369,000."

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in May to 4.1 months from 4.0 months in April.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 161,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is at a record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In May 2013 (red column), 45 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 35 thousand homes were sold in May. The high for May was 120 thousand in 2005, and the low for May was 26 thousand in 2010.



This was above expectations of 460,000 sales in May, and a very solid report, especially with all the upward revision to previous months.  I'll have more later today.

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.1% year-over-year in April

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Set Record Monthly Rise in April 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through April 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed average home prices increased 11.6% and 12.1% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in the 12 months ending in April 2013. From March to April, the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 2.6% and 2.5%.

All 20 cities and both Composites showed positive year-over-year returns for at least the fourth consecutive month. Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit and Minneapolis posted their highest annual gains since the start of their respective indices. On a monthly basis, all cities with the exception of Detroit posted positive change.

“The 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest monthly gains in the history of S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Thirteen cities posted monthly increases of over two percentage points, with San Francisco leading at 4.9%."

For the month of April, 19 of the 20 cities showed positive returns; Detroit was the only MSA to remain flat. Compared to March 2013, thirteen cities showed improvement with Minneapolis showing the largest change with a gain of 2.9% compared to its March return of -1.1%. California is seeing impressive returns all around with gains ranging from 3.4% to 4.9%. Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco posted their highest gains since 2004, 1988 and 1987, respectively. Looking at the east coast, Miami showed its largest return, 2.4%, in seven and a half years.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 25.6% from the peak, and up 1.7% in April (SA). The Composite 10 is up 12.8% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 24.8% from the peak, and up 1.7% (SA) in April. The Composite 20 is up 13.5% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 11.6% compared to April 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 12.1% compared to April 2012. This was the eleventh consecutive month with a year-over-year gain and this was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 52.6% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs.

This was above the consensus forecast for a 10.9% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.

LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rate lowest since May 2008, Foreclosure inventories lowest since March 2009

According to the First Look report for May to be released today by Lender Processing Services (LPS), the percent of loans delinquent decreased in May compared to April, and declined about 12% year-over-year. Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in May and were down almost 27% over the last year.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) decreased to 6.08% from 6.21% in April. Note: the normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 3.05% in May from 3.17% in April. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down about 13% year-over-year (452,000 fewer properties delinquent), and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 27% or 585,000 properties year-over-year.

The percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process is still high, but declining fairly quickly.

LPS will release the complete mortgage monitor for May in early July.

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	May 2013	Apr 2013	May 2012
Delinquent	6.08%	6.21%	7.20%
In Foreclosure	3.05%	3.17%	4.12%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,708,000	1,717,000	1,924,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,335,000	1,394,000	1,571,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	1,525,000	1,588,000	2,111,000
Total Properties	4,569,000	4,699,000	5,605,000

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence and more

Plenty of data tomorrow ...

Tuesday:
• Early: LPS "First Look" at May mortgage performance data. Expect further declines in delinquencies and foreclosures.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.3% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April. The consensus is for a 10.9% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for December. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 12.1% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 1.7% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• Also at 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for April 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase.

• At 10:00 AM, the New Home Sales report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 460 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in May from 454 thousand in April.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 75.0 from 76.2.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. The consensus is for a reading of 2 for this survey, up from minus 2 in May (above zero is expansion).