Zillow: Rate of Home Value Appreciation Slows Nationwide in Q1

From Zillow: Rate of Home Value Appreciation Slows Nationwide in Q1, But Pockets of Volatility Remain

Zillow’s first quarter Real Estate Market Reports, released today, show home values increased 0.5% from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013 to $157,600. This quarter marks five consecutive quarters of national home value appreciation. On an annual basis, the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose 5.1% from March 2012 levels. While home values are still experiencing above normal annual home value appreciation we are seeing signs of deceleration. Monthly appreciation, albeit positive, has been continuously getting smaller, and national home values grew by only 0.1% for the past two months. This does not come as a surprise as appreciation rates have been unsustainable, especially in some of the markets harder hit by the housing recession. ...

According to the Zillow Home Value Forecast (ZHVF), we expect national home values to increase 3.2% over the next year (March 2013 to March 2014).

This report is through Q1, the most recent Case-Shiller release was for January.

We are starting to see a little more inventory - probably in response to the recent price increases - and it would make sense that with more inventory, the pace of price increases would slow.

Note: Here are the Zillow Home Value Indexes by city.

Update: CoreLogic acquires Case-Shiller

Last night I mentioned that CoreLogic had acquired Case-Shiller house price index, and I wondered if there would be changes to how the index was released. The answer is nothing will change ...

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Acquires Case-Shiller

CoreLogic® ... announced the acquisition of Case-Shiller® from Fiserv, Inc. ...

In addition to the widely recognized Case-Shiller Indexes, CoreLogic will continue to offer its CoreLogic HPI® ... The CoreLogic HPI and the Case-Shiller Indexes are complementary measures of home price trends utilizing the same baseline methodology of repeat home sales.

The Case-Shiller Indexes will be renamed the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will retain their brand name. The CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reports will continue to be published and distributed on their customary time schedules and in their current formats.

Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for Case-Shiller, will continue to supervise the preparation of the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes and comment on the findings of those indexes. Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, will continue to supervise the preparation of the CoreLogic HPI reports and comment on the findings of those reports.

Only the name (and ownership) has changed.

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing contracted "modestly" in April

So far all of the regional manufacturing surveys have indicated April was pretty weak. From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Survey Fell Modestly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the April Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity fell by a similar modest amount as last month, and producers' expectations moderated but remained positive overall.

"We saw another small decline in regional factory activity this month," said Wilkerson. "Some firms see signs of a pickup in activity later this year driven by pent up demand and new product offerings, but others have become more pessimistic recently as anticipated demand has failed to materialize."

The month-over-month composite index was -5 in April, equal to -5 in March but up from -10 in February ... The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Durable goods-producing plants reported a smaller decline in activity, but production at nondurable-goods plants fell after increasing last month, particularly for food and plastics products. Most other month-over-month indexes improved somewhat. The production index edged higher from -1 to 1, and the shipments index also increased, with both indexes moving into positive territory for the first time in 8 months. The employment index rebounded from -15 to -3, and the order backlog index also rose. The new orders and new orders for exports indexes were basically unchanged. Both inventory indexes fell further into negative territory after increasing last month.

The last regional survey for April will be released next Monday (Dallas), and the ISM index for April will be released on Wednesday, May 1st. Based on the regional surveys, I expect a fairly weak reading for the ISM index (perhaps at or below 50).

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 339,000

The DOL reports:

In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 357,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 362,000.

The previous week was revised up from 352,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 357,500.

Weekly claims were the lowest in six weeks and were below the 350,000 consensus forecast.